Week 11 Dynasty Stock Watch: Buy, Sell Hold Trade Advice

view original post

Well, we’re coming into Week 11 with D’Onta Foreman as one of the hottest waiver wire adds, Adrian Peterson is a starting running back and many contending teams are dealing with the loss of Cordarrelle Patterson.

Not exactly how we drew it up in the offseason, is it?

For those who are rebuilding, the remainder of the 2021 NFL season is a bit moot as you’re likely already trying for a few weeks now to unload productive veterans for youth and picks. Value is hard to find as young assets have either well carved out roles or are floundering a layer too deep on the depth chart.

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s try and sift through the $5 DVD bin and find a gem worth the cost.

The Week 11 dynasty tip is to understand that every move is a gamble and humbly accept your fallibility. You don’t, in fact, know everything and you can’t predict the future. Shocking, I know. But I’m sure you’ve encountered your fair share of egos out there in this crazy world who seem to think they’ve got it all figured out.

Check NFL Week 11 Odds at SI Sportsbook

I look at it like this: There is a league full of pretty good players out there. I want better than pretty good. In re-draft, you will be lucky to have more than a few of the game’s best players just by the nature of the snake draft. On paper, you get one of the best 12, two of the best 24—and so on—in 12-team leagues.

Point here is in dynasty, you can accumulate almost any player you like, especially if you can wheel and deal. Like Dwight’s “Art of the Swap” at the Dunder Mifflin garage sale, you can trade a thumbtack for items of increasing value. It’s knowing when to stop trading (like when Dwight traded for Michael’s telescope), rather than trading it all away for a pack of Jim’s magic legumes.

When you’re looking to make a rebuild trade run, seeking trades to add value each step of the way doesn’t make your team better. It does make you believe your team is better though, which I suppose does count for something. But you’re gambling each step of the way because I’m sad to say we can’t actually predict the future. You take your best guess, and like the late Kenny Rogers told us, “You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em. Know when to walk away and know when to run.”

Let’s ring the dynasty stock watch opening bell:

WR Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams

Whether you’re rebuilding or trying to win your league, Woods—to me—is now a dead asset. He’ll be 30 next year, and while the Rams’ supporting cast has met and exceeded the high offseason expectations, I want to get out now. Sure, the price has to be right. Odell Beckham Jr. will be a free agent next year. Maybe he re-signs. But the Rams already have Van Jefferson, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they add a receiver on Day 2 of the draft regardless of whether OBJ stays or goes. I know the Rams have almost no picks left, but they have some compensatory picks coming.

In any case, the step between Cooper Kupp and Woods has grown since the offseason. Even if you want to pat yourself on the back and say you knew Kupp was better—most did, anyway—you probably didn’t think he’d be as good as he has been this year. With that, we have a firm upper-limit for Woods’ production barring some major injury that takes Kupp out after Woods’ return.

There’s still an outside chance Matthew Stafford doesn’t return. He has one year left on his deal, so 2022 will be a contract year. Who knows? Stafford might ask for a monster extension after 2021 and maybe the Rams have to pony-up a big deal.

LA is on the hook for Woods through 2025 with $60M left on his four remaining years. This offseason, the Rams could cut Woods just to get out from under this contract. It’s all speculation.

Look, the Rams are good, Woods has been a dependable WR2 and perhaps this is a glass half-empty point of view, but owning the former USC star doesn’t excite me after this injury. His 2021 was shaping up well, but not great. He’s a team captain. After toiling with the Bills for four years, Woods has enjoyed a pretty incredible second-half to his career since coming to the Rams in 2017. I’m not trying to send the guy out to pasture, but I’ll be moving on for whatever I can get for him.

SI Recommends

Win-Now: SELL
Rebuild: SELL

Dynasty Dynamite

Rather than commit to a deep dive on every player, the dynasty dynamite section delivers hot takes on recent and relevant players.

QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

In last week’s Dynasty Stock Watch, I had my fingers crossed for a sustained Mahomes’ dip—it didn’t last. After his Week 10 stat line (406 yards, five TDs), the Golden Boy seems back on track. If you missed that write-up, the gist was that I was hoping he’d continue to struggle to make acquiring him a little bit easier and cheaper with each poor performance. That window—the cracked sliver that it was—now looks closed.

Superflex: HOLD FOREVER!

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

QBs Mike White & Zach Wilson, New York Jets

I wrote about White two weeks ago and said to hold (see, I am an optimist!) and I wrote about Wilson three weeks ago and said to sell. We already knew White wasn’t really the guy, and some of you still need convincing that Wilson isn’t the guy. I don’t know what else this franchise has to do if you’re still invested in any piece of it.

Win-Now: SELL
Rebuild: SELL

RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Is there a more juicy or obvious 2022 breakout player of the year candidate? You could write the preseason article now. Give this man some touches!

Win-Now: HOLD
Rebuild: BUY

The Tennessee Titans

I’m not sure if this really fits as a buy, hold, sell breakdown, but what is this team? I guess A.J. Brown wore Michael Johnson’s uniform in Week 10, as the fifth-year receiver increased his career stats by about 15% in one game. The WR2 job feels like a revolving door and I can’t be tempted by anyone on this offense.

After two dynamite seasons, Brown’s fallen off and you’re hoping to just wake up the day before the 2022 season to start all over with him. Ryan Tannehill is unfortunately embracing the game-manager role with 12 TDs and 8 INTs this year.

D’Onta Foreman and Adrian Peterson? Ugh.

You have to keep Brown and I could understand the temptation to buy low on Derrick Henry for the right price—or even sell him if you’re locked out from a postseason run.

But this team? They’re 8-2—tied with the Cardinals and Packers for the best record in the NFL—but it just feels like a rolling dumpster fire. They’ve got a black trash bag for a passenger window and a bumper clinging for life by duct tape. Meanwhile, the whole ride stinks, like Jerry’s B.O. car. This team could lose the rest of its games and would you really be shocked? In a way, I do admire it. I have to give credit to them for keeping it together. This report from The Tennessean says the team has used 80 players in games, 11 more than the next team. Like I said, admirable—impressive even. But do I want any piece of this team? No thanks.

Check the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook

Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter

More Fantasy, Betting & NFL:
Week 11 Waiver Wire
Week 11 IDP Waiver Wire Report
Fantasy Impact: Cordarrelle Patterson Injury
My Favorite Bet: First Super Bowl Score
A QB Evolution & Coaching Revolution