In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it’s worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But if you try your hand at stock picking, your risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term 360 Capital REIT (ASX:TOT) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 26% in three years, versus a market return of about 48%.
So let’s have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business’ progress.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
360 Capital REIT saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 17% per year, over the last three years. In comparison the 10% compound annual share price decline isn’t as bad as the EPS drop-off. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free interactive report on 360 Capital REIT’s earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, 360 Capital REIT’s TSR for the last 3 years was -4.8%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
360 Capital REIT shareholders gained a total return of 11% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, that’s still a gain, and it’s actually better than the average return of 6% over half a decade This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand 360 Capital REIT better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 3 warning signs with 360 Capital REIT , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.