There is a general belief among many traders that bad markets tend to bottom on panic. Panic selling does tend to produce some sizable oversold bounces, but market bottoms typically form on disgust and dismay. I’ve often written that bad markets don’t scare you out, they wear you out.
This market is quickly building toward the disgust stage. The indexes gapped down to start the day and were unable to manage even a minor bounce. Breadth is deteriorating and is now around five to one negative. New 12-month lows are piling up and are around 800.
What is most discouraging about this type of market action is that fundamentals and valuations just don’t matter. In a more normal market environment, an attractive valuation may serve as support, but in this environment it is totally meaningless.
The biggest negative continues to be that the indexes and big-cap names have not corrected nearly as much as the great majority of the market. There is no interest in buying stocks that have already been pummeled when many big-cap names have barely corrected.
I’ve taken some stops and have no interest in buying right now. When we see some better price action I will go to work, but so far there are no signs of it.