If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But the last three years have been particularly tough on longer term Noxopharm Limited (ASX:NOX) shareholders. So they might be feeling emotional about the 56% share price collapse, in that time. And the ride hasn’t got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 52% lower in that time. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 33% in the last three months.
So let’s have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business’ progress.
Noxopharm isn’t currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
Over three years, Noxopharm grew revenue at 18% per year. That’s a fairly respectable growth rate. So some shareholders would be frustrated with the compound loss of 16% per year. The market must have had really high expectations to be disappointed with this progress. It would be well worth taking a closer look at the company, to determine growth trends (and balance sheet strength).
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there’s a difference between Noxopharm’s total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we’ve covered above. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. We note that Noxopharm’s TSR, at -51% is higher than its share price return of -56%. When you consider it hasn’t been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Noxopharm had a tough year, with a total loss of 52%, against a market gain of about 6.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 0.7% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we’ve identified 4 warning signs for Noxopharm that you should be aware of.
Of course Noxopharm may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.