Avation PLC (LON:AVAP) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 21% in the last month. Meanwhile over the last three years the stock has dropped hard. Regrettably, the share price slid 70% in that period. So it is really good to see an improvement. While many would remain nervous, there could be further gains if the business can put its best foot forward.
It’s worthwhile assessing if the company’s economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let’s do just that.
Because Avation made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That’s because it’s hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
In the last three years Avation saw its revenue shrink by 0.2% per year. That’s not what investors generally want to see. The share price fall of 19% (per year, over three years) is a stern reminder that money-losing companies are expected to grow revenue. This business clearly needs to grow revenues if it is to perform as investors hope. There’s no more than a snowball’s chance in hell that share price will head back to its old highs, in the short term.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Avation shareholders are down 20% for the year. Unfortunately, that’s worse than the broader market decline of 4.3%. Having said that, it’s inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year’s performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 10% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Avation is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant…
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.