Analysts at Bank of America recently updated their projections for the S&P 500 this year, calling for the benchmark to be at 3,600 at the end of the year. While past projections called for an increase in the second half of the year, this new estimate would see the market drop another 5% by end of 2022.
Analysts also see the economy potentially heading toward a recession later this year, as the Federal Reserve adopts an aggressive interest rate-raising posture to quell inflation. Given these concerns, it is difficult for investors to know where to turn. You could certainly use the downturn to scoop up cheap beaten-down growth stocks, but with the bottom apparently not yet in sight, a better approach might be to invest in some stocks that can balance out the losses. If you have $1,000 to invest right now, here is a good, safe option.
Invesco S&P Ultra Dividend Revenue ETF, the anti-QQQ
With such uncertainty in the market, a diversified exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a great option right now, particularly one built to navigate volatility, generate dividend income, and thrive in a rising interest rate environment. The one ETF that fits the bill is the Invesco S&P Ultra Dividend Revenue ETF (RDIV 1.71%).
Over the past few years, another Invesco ETF called the Invesco QQQ (QQQ 2.80%) has been one of the most popular investments. This one might be considered the anti-QQQ, and it would fit very well alongside QQQ in a portfolio.
The Invesco S&P Ultra Dividend Revenue ETF tracks the S&P 900 Dividend Revenue-Weighted Index, drawing from the 900 largest mid- and large-cap stocks. From that base, it takes the top 5% of stocks that have the highest dividend yields and then screens for the top 5% in each sector with the lowest dividend payout ratio. Based on these screens, it comes up with the top 60 stocks with the best yields and lowest payout ratios — ensuring a portfolio of companies with lots of liquidity to sustain dividend payments. Further, the index and fund are weighted by revenue earned, with a maximum weighting of 5% per stock. This ensures that the companies that are growing the fastest get the largest weighting.
Currently, the largest holdings are all in the healthcare sector with Merck, Pfizer, and Gilead Sciences representing the three largest positions.
Through June 30, the fund was basically flat year to date, down about 0.4%. For a market that is down over 20%, that is major outperformance. Over the past year through June 30, it is up 3.8% with a five-year annualized return of 8.8%. It doesn’t have a 10-year track record yet, but since its inception in 2013 it has posted an annualized return of 10.3%. It also has a high dividend yield, with a 12-month distribution rate of 3.44%. In the second quarter, the ETF declared a $0.35 quarterly dividend.
Ballast during the storm
While the 10-year return is certainly solid, this ETF is not going to match QQQ or other growth-oriented investments over the long term. But it will help you balance out your portfolio during bear markets and market corrections. With its screens, it ensures that it generates maximum dividend income, but it also tracks the most stable, liquid companies and focuses on those generating the most revenue in a given market cycle. With interest rates on the rise, it will capitalize on those stocks that generate the most revenue in a rising rate environment.
The ETF is currently trading at around $41 per share, so it also has a nice low entry point. At that price, you could buy 25 shares for just over $1,000. If you already have some growth investments, like QQQ, in your portfolio, this is a good investment to provide some return until the market bounces back. If this is your first $1,000 investment, you may not want to invest the entire sum in this ETF. It may be better to invest half in this ETF and half in something with a little more juice, like QQQ.