Wall Street Is Hoping for a Policy Pivot. Fed Minutes Show It’s Not Coming Soon.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 20-21 monetary-policy meeting provide some fodder for recurring hopes that a Fed pivot is nearing. Investors should dismiss it.

The minutes noted “broad-based and unacceptably high level of inflation,” and said risks to the inflation outlook are increasing. Many participants emphasized that the cost of taking too little action against inflation outweighed the cost of doing too much, and several underlined the need to maintain a restrictive stance for as long as necessary. A couple of those officials stressed that historical experience demonstrated the danger of prematurely ending periods of tight monetary policy designed to bring down inflation.

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