By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. Just take a look at African Rainbow Capital Investments Limited (JSE:AIL), which is up 53%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 13% (not including dividends).
So let’s investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business’ progress.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
African Rainbow Capital Investments was able to grow its EPS at 57% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. The average annual share price increase of 15% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So one could reasonably conclude that the market has cooled on the stock. We’d venture the lowish P/E ratio of 6.30 also reflects the negative sentiment around the stock.
The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on African Rainbow Capital Investments’ earnings, revenue and cash flow.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 5.0% in the last year, African Rainbow Capital Investments shareholders lost 3.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 1.5% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should “buy when there is blood on the streets”, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we’ve spotted with African Rainbow Capital Investments .
If you would prefer to check out another company — one with potentially superior financials — then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on ZA exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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