Warnings of a coming recession this year are wrong, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said.
Bullard pointed to strong economic data and shrugged off fears of an economic contraction.
A strong labor market and strong consumption are likely to fuel a “big chunk” of the US economy.
Wall Street is wrong for sounding the alarm on a recession in 2023, and the US economy will keep expanding this year, according to St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard.
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“Wall Street’s very engaged in the idea there’s going to be a recession in six months or something, but that isn’t really the way you would read an expansion like this,” the central banker told Reuters in an interview published Tuesday.
Strategists have flagged the rising risk of a downturn for months, with markets dragged lower last year amid rising inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes from the Fed. Central bankers raised rates aggressively in the last year to rein in high prices, bring borrowing costs to levels experts say could push the economy into a recession.
But Wall Streets’ recession calls are putting too much emphasis on the rapid pace of rate hikes, Bullard said, pointing to more positive economic indicators. Inflation is on the decline, cooling to 5% in March.
Those factors could fuel growth in a “big chunk of the economy,” Bullard said, waving off Wall Street’s grim prognostications of a painful recession at some point in 2023.
And while Fed economists said they expected a mild recession to strike later this year, that gloomy forecast was likely prompted by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank last month, which set off fears of another 1980s-style banking crisis.
And there’s little evidence of that happening, Bullard said: The St. Louis Financial Stress index is now hovering around zero, while the index typically measures around 4-5 in event of a financial crisis.
“It doesn’t seem like the moment to be predicting that you have a recession in the second half of 2023,” Bullard said, though he acknowledged it would take more time and higher interest rates to tame inflation.
His view echoes that of other observers, who say the Fed can’t afford to back off interest rate hikes prematurely, at the risk of inflation rebounding and spiraling out of control.
Prices are still well-above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and core inflation, which reflects inflationary pressures in the economy, accelerated in March. Markets are pricing in an 87% chance that the Fed will raise rates another 25 basis-points at its next policy meeting in May, which would raise the Fed funds rate to a target range of 5%-5.25%.
People are flocking to money markets to protect their money. Here are the 8 accounts currently offering the highest yields.
SVB’s failure raised fears about the safety of deposits, triggering an outflow out of smaller banks.
Money-market funds and accounts look attractive thanks to their higher yields, given the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes.
These are the eight highest-yielding money-market accounts right now, according to Bankrate data.
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse this month has prompted investors to pull money from smaller, more vulnerable lenders and move it to safer places that also offer better returns.
This has prominently included money-market funds, which have seen yields juiced by the same rate hikes that crippled SVB’s loan portfolio and sent people scrambling out of less established banks. With safer investments also offering better returns, the shift has been an easy decision for depositors.
Since the start of March, $286 billion has flowed into money-market funds, on pace for the biggest month since the depths of COVID, according to data compiled by EPFR and published by the Financial Times.
It’s a shift that started back in early 2022, when the Federal Reserve started its ongoing path of rate increases. Since then, people have pulled $1 trillion from vulnerable banks and put them into money market funds and bigger institutions, JPMorgan data shows. Of that amount, half was reallocated after the collapse of SVB.
“Fed rate hikes have been increasing the yield advantage of Government Money Market Funds, given the bulk of their investments are in Fed’s reverse repos and Tbills, both of which follow the Fed policy rate closely,” JPMorgan strategists wrote in a recent note.
While money-market funds aren’t guaranteed, they do invest in the safest and most liquid instruments, JPMorgan strategists said. That, combined with the increasingly attractive yields, makes them enticing for investors in the current environment.
Closely related to money-market funds are similar accounts offered by banks. They’re actually even safer, offering FDIC insurance up to $250,000 per depositor. For an everyday person looking to follow the trend towards money markets, accounts may be the better option, even if funds sometimes yield more.
Here are the money-market accounts offering the highest yields as of Friday, March 24, according to Bankrate.
1. UFB Direct, 5.02%
The online-only UFB Direct only offers savings and money market accounts for deposit accounts, per Bankrate.
It has check-writing privileges and ATM access, but you have to pay a $10 monthly fee if you keep less than $5,000 in the account.
2. CFG Community Bank, 4.80%
The Maryland-based community bank requires $1,000 to open, and a $1,000 minimum balance requirement to avoid a $10 monthly fee.
Bankrate points out CFG’s savings account annual percentage yield is lower than the national average, and checking accounts can only be opened in person in Maryland.
3. Sallie Mae, 4.05%
Bankrate notes that there are no monthly maintenance fees to keep a money market account with Sallie Mae. It also features free transfers but doesn’t include checking accounts, according to Sallie Mae’s website.
This is also a featured offer on Bankrate’s site, meaning it is sponsored.
Additionally, there are no maintenance fees or overdraft fees, and Ally reimburses up to $10 a month for fees charged on other ATMs.
5. First Internet Bank of Indiana: 3.56%
The APY is competitive, though account holders must maintain a $4,000 balance to avoid a $5 monthly fee, Bankrate says. Check writing is not available with this account.
It requires $100 to open an account, and account holders get up to $10 of monthly ATM surcharges refunded.
6. Discover Bank: 3.50%
Bankrate notes that customers will need to deposit $2,500 to open Discover’s money market account, which doesn’t have a monthly service fee.
It provides a debit card and free checks, and customers who keep $100,000 or more will earn a slightly higher APY.
7. US Bank: 3.50%
US Bank’s money market account requires a $10,000 minimum balance to avoid the $10 monthly fee, and this option offers check writing, Bankrate says about the sponsored offer.
Customers can also earn extra savings when they open a US Bank Elite Money Market Account.
8. Northpointe Bank: 3.25%
The Grand Rapids, Michigan-based bank offers attractive rates but only if a deposit of at least $2,500 is maintained in the account, according to Bankrate.
To earn the highest yield, at least $5,000 is required in the account, and it does not offer check-writing privileges. Bankrate also adds that an extra transaction fee of $15 per item applies when the limit of six monthly transactions is surpassed.
On accounts with balances below $2,500, no interest is earned.
