S&P 500: Overreaction or Opportunity? Fed Rate Cut Speculation Fuels Rebound

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Daily US Dollar Index (DXY)

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, as investors sought refuge from trade uncertainty. The dollar fell 0.76% against the yen, reaching its lowest level since October, while the Swiss franc hit a three-month high. The euro held steady near a four-month peak, supported by expectations of increased European government spending.

Key Catalysts: CPI, PPI, and Trump’s Business Roundtable Speech

Markets now turn to upcoming economic data and political developments for direction. Tuesday’s job openings report, Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will offer critical insights into inflation and the Fed’s next moves. CPI data, in particular, will determine whether rate-cut expectations strengthen or weaken.

Traders are also watching President Trump’s remarks at the Business Roundtable later Tuesday. His comments on tariffs and trade policy will be closely scrutinized, especially as corporate leaders push back against protectionist measures.

Market Outlook: Potential Stabilization If Data and Policy Align

While recession fears have fueled volatility, several factors could support a market rebound. A softer-than-expected CPI reading or dovish Fed signals could provide relief, while clarity on trade policy may ease investor uncertainty. However, continued pressure on tech stocks and tariff risks remain key headwinds. Traders should stay alert for shifts in sentiment as data and policy developments unfold.