1. Wells Fargo crowns AMD the new chip king. The bank upgraded semiconductor stocks this morning with AMD as its top pick—a bold call considering Nvidia’s dominance. AMD crushed both the market and NVDA in 2025, posting 90% gains versus Nvidia’s 37%. The stock jumped 6.5% this week to $223.60, with RSI at 57 showing room to run before overbought territory. Wells Fargo sees AMD’s data center momentum and MI300 AI accelerators gaining share against Nvidia’s H100/H200 lineup. With earnings due February 3rd and analysts expecting $1.33 EPS on $9.7 billion revenue, the upgrade timing positions AMD for a catalyst-rich month. Intel rallied 14% this week on turnaround optimism, though its 0.37% profit margin and 71% YoY earnings decline suggest the comeback story remains early-stage speculation.
2. China moves to restrict Nvidia, but the damage may already be done. Beijing is drafting regulations to limit AI chip purchases from Nvidia, adding geopolitical risk to the semiconductor thesis. NVDA dropped 3.2% this week to $183.14 despite eight consecutive earnings beats and 9x EPS growth since 2023. Nvidia derives meaningful revenue from China through export-compliant chips like the H20, but prediction markets never confirmed rumors that DeepSeek used banned Nvidia hardware. That market resolved to “no” in March 2025. Startup Etched just raised $500 million to build Nvidia alternatives, and China’s AI infrastructure buildout continues regardless of U.S. export controls. The restriction threat is real, but Nvidia’s $4.46 trillion market cap already prices in regulatory headwinds. The question is whether China restrictions accelerate or merely formalize what’s already happening.
3. TSMC’s blowout validates the entire AI infrastructure bet. Taiwan Semi reported Q4 revenue of $33.73 billion and EPS of $19.50, beating estimates by 9%. Gross margins hit 62.3% with Q1 2026 guidance projecting expansion to 63-65%. Advanced nodes (7nm and below) now represent 77% of wafer revenue, with 3nm at 28% and 5nm at 35%. TSMC manufactures for Nvidia, AMD, Apple, and Qualcomm simultaneously. Prediction markets priced TSMC’s earnings beat at 99.9% probability before the announcement. ASML, which supplies TSMC’s EUV lithography equipment, crossed $500 billion in market cap on the news. The entire semiconductor ETF (81.9% tech-weighted) surged, with NVDA’s 19.6% weight and TSM’s 10.5% weight driving index performance.
4. Amazon’s copper deal reveals AI’s physical infrastructure demands. Rio Tinto will supply Nuton Copper to Amazon’s AWS data centers, confirming the Wall Street Journal’s report about America’s first new copper output in a decade. AI infrastructure requires power, cooling, and materials. Every data center running Nvidia H100 clusters requires massive electrical capacity and thermal management. Amazon insiders sold heavily through November (CEO Jassy dumped 19,872 shares, Stores CEO Herrington sold 36,119 shares), showing management isn’t using personal capital to signal confidence despite strategic investments. Raymond James cut AMZN’s price target to $260 from $275 while maintaining Outperform. The stock sits at $236.65, up 8.3% over one year but down 2% year-to-date.
5. Meta abandons the Metaverse, finally. Meta is slashing Metaverse-focused jobs in a major strategic pivot toward AI, validating what investors suspected for two years: the VR bet was a costly distraction. The stock dropped 5.1% this week to $615.52 as Australia suspended roughly 5 million underage accounts under new social media regulations. Meta insiders showed zero confidence—COO Olivan, CLO Newstead, and CTO Bosworth all sold shares systematically through December with no open-market purchases. CEO Zuckerberg executed a massive 1.05 million share reorganization on October 31st, converting Class B to Class A holdings. The company’s 130% five-year return proves the underlying advertising business works, but regulatory pressure is mounting globally.
6. Microsoft doubles down on AI with $500 million Anthropic spend. MSFT’s investment in Anthropic approaches half a billion dollars, positioning the company as a top AI infrastructure play. The stock trades at $459.38, down 5% this week but up 11% over one year. Microsoft’s forward P/E of 40x and 32.8% operating margins show pricing power. The company beat earnings in four of the last five quarters, with Q4 FY2025 showing 23.7% YoY EPS growth—the strongest recent performance. If you believe AI monetization is real and Microsoft’s Azure/OpenAI partnership creates durable advantages, the current pullback is noise.
7. Software sector faces existential AI questions. Investors are asking whether AI threatens traditional enterprise software makers like Salesforce. CRM dropped 10% this week to $239.57 despite beating earnings estimates in seven of the last eight quarters, including a 13.6% surprise in Q3 FY2025. The concern isn’t current performance—it’s whether AI agents replace CRM workflows entirely. Salesforce’s 10-year EPS growth (8.74x expansion) proves the business model worked historically, but that’s backward-looking. The forward question is whether $240 per share prices in disruption risk or overreacts to speculative threats.