NHC starts tracking Invest 91L in the Atlantic | What that means for the Southeastern US

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center said Friday that a tropical wave in the central Atlantic has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next week. If it strengthens, the system could be named Gabrielle.

While the disturbance has a 90% chance of development within seven days, it remains poorly organized in the near term. Satellite imagery shows broad circulation and scattered convection, but the wave is contending with pockets of dry Saharan air to its north.

Forecast models differ on the system’s future. Some guidance shows gradual strengthening as it tracks west toward the Lesser Antilles, while others suggest it may weaken. If development occurs, any impacts on the eastern Caribbean including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and nearby islands would most likely come next week, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall.

Uncertainty remains high because the system does not yet have a well-defined center as of Friday, and hurricane reconnaissance aircraft have not investigated the disturbance. Without those observations and a defined low level center, forecast models are limited. The European model favors slower development, while recent U.S. model runs have shown a quicker intensification and a possible re-curvature away from the Caribbean.

Long-range projections circulating on social media, including images of a major hurricane near Florida are based on single model runs and should not be taken as forecasts. Ensemble data, which average multiple model scenarios, show widely scattered possibilities, underscoring low confidence more than 10 days out.

The Atlantic hurricane season peaks on Sept. 10, and the coming weeks are historically the most active period. Officials urge residents to stay informed but not alarmed, as the system remains in its formative stages.

For more information, be sure to stop by our Hurricane Central page.