Shares of Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) are up 5.7% over the past 90 days, despite recently announced partnerships with Intel and OpenAI and several new products unveiled, as the company’s market share in China dropped to zero. The stock is still 86.9% higher than six months ago, easily outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in that time.
However, the ongoing rebound from the spring low has sparked mixed reactions. While some analysts have raised price targets, others caution about ongoing headwinds due to uncertainty surrounding future U.S.-China trade relations and the potential for stricter regulations.
Nvidia, the leading artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker, has been navigating a pivotal moment since posting mixed first-quarter earnings, which one analyst called a victory. The second-quarter report was stellar on the top and bottom lines, but its guidance fell short of high expectations. Note that recent gains for the chipmaker helped wipe away the steep drop the stock suffered early in 2025, after it reported it would take a $5.5 billion charge tied to H20 chip export restrictions to China.
Despite this, the company’s pivot to U.S. AI infrastructure investments signals resilience. With analysts eyeing robust data center demand, 24/7 Wall St. here explores whether Nvidia can sustain its recovery and drive further growth.
Nvidia faces significant hurdles as it navigates U.S.-China trade restrictions and intense market expectations. In the first quarter, export controls on its H20 AI chip—which had been designed specifically to circumvent export restrictions on advanced technology to China—led to the substantial write-down noted above. Analysts believed the ban could result in a $9 billion revenue hit. Some $700 million would affect fiscal first-quarter results, with the remaining $8 billion spread across the second and third quarters.
New U.S. tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures also threatened supply chain costs, particularly for components sourced globally, while competition from Huawei’s Ascend chips grows. These factors had analysts warning of margin pressure. Yet, Nvidia’s profitability remains robust. The company has reportedly raised prices 10% to 15% on some of its most popular GPUs as a result of the tariffs. Gaming processor prices jumped 5% to 10%, while it hiked high-end AI GPUs as much as 15% to account for surging manufacturing costs and to keep its earnings stable.
Yet investments in U.S. AI infrastructure, supported by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s $165 billion Arizona fab expansion, bolster Nvidia’s supply chains and are backed by its $37.6 billion cash reserve.
Of special note is the deal that CEO Jensen Huang announced as part of Trump’s visit to Riyadh. Nvidia will sell 18,000 of its GB300 Blackwell chips—its most advanced—to Saudi Arabia’s Humain for use in data centers with 500 megawatts of capacity.
Additionally, the AI market is projected to grow at a 37% CAGR through 2030, according to Grand View Research. This supports Nvidia’s $170 billion fiscal 2026 revenue forecast, a 30% increase over the $130.5 billion it generated in 2025.
In its second-quarter earnings report, Nvidia revenue totaled a record $46.7 billion, including $41.1 billion from its data center division. The total was up 56% year over year, largely fueled by the voracious demand for its AI chips.
The chipmaker invested $3.2 billion in capital expenditures in fiscal 2025, expanding Blackwell accelerator production and AI infrastructure. The company’s capex has spiked over 200% this year to more than $3 billion to meet hyperscaler demand.
U.S.-China trade restrictions still pose risks, even with the potential thaw, tariffs could raise costs, which would explain the price hikes reportedly implemented. A 39% operating expense increase to $3.7 billion for R&D offset Nvidia’s adjusted operating income of $25.1 billion.
Yet, Nvidia’s growth is not solely tied to data centers. The company expanded its automotive segment, with a 103% year-over-year increase to $570 million, driven by partnerships with Toyota and Aurora Innovation for autonomous vehicles. This diversifies Nvidia’s portfolio amid tariff uncertainties.
Nvidia has projected fiscal third-quarter revenue of $54 billion, plus or minus 2%. This outlook does not assume any shipments of its H20 chips to China.
This has been a rollercoaster year for Nvidia shareholders. The stock dropped to a 52-week low of $86.62 in April. After an announced pause in U.S.-China tariffs and the first-quarter results, the share price recovered. It recently hit an all-time high of $195.62, which brought the company’s market cap to almost $4.8 trillion.
While at least one officer is still selling shares, analyst sentiment remains bullish. Of 64 analysts who cover the stock, 59 recommend buying shares, 10 of them with Strong Buy ratings. Their consensus one-year price target has risen to $218.51. That target signals over 20% upside potential from its current price. Targets now range from $100 to $320 per share.
HSBC upgraded the shares to Buy and has the street-high target price. It cited expanding demand for AI chips and Nvidia’s substantial earnings upside by 2027. Cantor Fitzgerald and Mizuho recently maintained their Buy-equivalent ratings.
|
Estimate |
Price Target |
Change From Current Price |
|
Low |
$100.00 |
−44.8% |
|
Median |
$218.51 |
20.6% |
|
High |
$320.00 |
76.6% |
Nvidia’s AI dominance, 93% data center growth, and automotive partnerships with Toyota positioned the company for gains in 2025. However, tariff risks and DeepSeek’s competitive AI models require caution. The AI market’s growth and the chipmaker’s $47 billion second-quarter revenue position Nvidia to achieve its $170 billion full-year revenue target, while its cash buffer and Stargate Project role offer stability. Still, valuation concerns linger. Nvidia is a buy for growth-oriented investors, but others should use caution.
24/7 Wall St.’s year-end price target for Nvidia is $194.30 per share, implying 7.3% upside from the current price per share. That estimate accounts for tariff risks, competition from DeepSeek, and potential Blackwell supply constraints. It also reflects Nvidia’s AI dominance and second-quarter 2026 revenue guidance. Because the target estimate is below the analysts’ mean, it reflects a cautious but realistic outlook.
After OpenAI Deal, Is Nvidia’s AI Empire Inviting a Regulatory Crackdown?