Indian markets are likely to open on a muted note on Monday amid the absence of any major triggers from the global markets on the back of holiday-ridden weakness. However, Asian stocks, those open and US stock futures were mostly in red amid the rising tariff uncertainty across the globe.
Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 8.30 points, or 0.03 per cent, lower at 23,843, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Some global markets remain on holiday for Easter Monday, while most markets were shut for Good Friday.
Asian equities and US stock futures slid on Monday as anxiety over tariffs and public criticism of the Federal Reserve by President Donald Trump hit sentiment, leading gold prices to a new high. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.23 per cent, while South Korea’s KOSPI and New Zealand’s DJ inched up one-third per cent in the early session.
India has emerged as the first major market to fully recover from the losses triggered by the tariff announcements. Investor sentiment was buoyed by expectations that the US-China trade dispute would benefit India. The domestic macroeconomic environment remains supportive, encouraging investors to increase their exposure to riskier assets, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments
“On the flip side, the earnings growth for the fourth quarter of FY25 is likely to be insipid due to muted demand and margin pressures. Investors are advised to adopt a cautious stance, particularly with export-oriented stocks, and instead focus on pure domestic themes. A sector and stock-specific investment strategy is anticipated, driven by upcoming earnings releases,” he said.
The dollar tumbled on Monday as investor confidence in the US economy took another hit over President Donald Trump’s plans to shake up the Federal Reserve, which would throw into question the independence of the central bank. The dollar index slid to a three-year low of 98.623 on Monday.
The weakness in the US dollar bodes well for Indian currency. The Indian rupee is likely to trade with a positive bias this week, bolstered by a pickup in portfolio inflows while government bonds are expected to take direction from the central bank’s latest policy meeting minutes. The rupee closed at 85.3675 on Thursday, up nearly 0.8 per cent on the week.
In commodities, gold prices surged over 1 per cent to touch a record high of $3,370.17 per ounce, taking its gains so far this year to 26 per cent. The yellow metal has been consistently hitting record highs this year buoyed by safe haven flows.
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 4,667.94 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,006.15 crore. However, FPIs have pulled-out Rs 23,103 crore from Indian equites in April 2025 so far.
Markets witnessed a robust recovery in the holiday-shortened week, driven by favorable cues from both domestic and global fronts, said Ajit Mishra, SVP at Religare Broking. The rally was fueled by optimism surrounding the deferral of tariffs and recent exemptions on select products, raising hopes for potential negotiations that could mitigate the impact on global trade, he said.
“Market participants responded positively to a slew of favorable developments, including updates on a normal monsoon and easing retail inflation,” Mishra added. In the coming week, the scheduled expiry of April series contracts may lead to increased volatility. Globally, any updates related to tariffs and their potential impact on world markets will remain in focus.”
Nifty Outlook
The Nifty has shown a strong bullish reversal from the demand zone. The index successfully closed above the 22,850 level, confirming bullish momentum, said Choice Broking.
“If the price sustains above this level, we can expect a continuation of the uptrend, with potential upside targets placed at 24,500 and 25,000. On the downside, immediate support lies at 23,600 and 23,400, and any dip towards these levels is likely to be seen as a buying opportunity,” it said.
We believe that the short-term market texture is bullish. However, due to temporary overbought conditions, we may see range-bound activity in the near future, said Amol Athawale, VP-technical Research, Kotak Securities.
“For traders, the levels of 23,500/77,400 and 23,350/76,900 would act as key support zones, while resistance areas for the bulls could be found between 24,000/7,9000 and 24,200/79,600. However, if the market dips below 23,350/76,900, sentiment could change, prompting traders to consider exiting their long positions,” he said.
Nifty Bank outlook
Bank Nifty has formed a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. The consistent one-way move, along with a close near 54,290 on strong volumes, signals aggressive buying interest and sustained bullish momentum, said Choice Broking. “Any dips towards 53,600 or 53,000 are expected to be used as buying opportunities by market participants,” it said.
Bajaj Broking expects Bank nifty to head towards 54,800-55,000 levels in the coming weeks. Ratio Chart of Bank Nifty/Nifty has also generated a range breakout signals the current outperformance to continue in the medium term. “Bank Nifty dips should be used as a buying opportunity with key support placed at 51,800-52,300 levels being the recent breakout area and the weekly gap up area,” it said.
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