TLDR
- Elon Musk said Nvidia’s autonomous driving technology won’t compete with Tesla FSD for 5-6 years minimum.
- Nvidia launched Alpamayo at CES 2026, an open-source AI model for self-driving vehicles using camera input.
- Legacy automakers need years to integrate cameras and AI computers into production vehicles at scale.
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called Tesla’s FSD stack “the most advanced AV stack in the world.”
- Tesla runs a limited robotaxi service in Austin and a supervised ride-hailing service in San Francisco.
Elon Musk said Nvidia’s new self-driving technology won’t threaten Tesla for at least five to six years. The Tesla CEO responded to Nvidia’s announcement at CES 2026 on Monday.
Nvidia unveiled Alpamayo, an open-source AI model family for autonomous vehicles. The system uses camera-based video input to navigate city streets. Nvidia demonstrated the technology driving a Mercedes through Las Vegas.
Musk explained the timeline on X. He said achieving safer-than-human driving takes several years. Legacy automakers then face additional delays integrating hardware.
“The legacy car companies won’t design the cameras and AI computers into their cars at scale until several years after that,” Musk wrote. He added this creates competitive pressure “in 5 or 6 years, but probably longer.”
The Tesla CEO described another challenge. Getting to 99% accuracy is easy. Solving the remaining edge cases is “super hard.”
Nvidia’s Platform Strategy
Nvidia takes a different approach than Tesla. The company builds full autonomous vehicle stacks for other automakers. Nvidia doesn’t manufacture self-driving cars.
“Our system is really quite pervasive because we’re a technology platform provider,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Tuesday. The company positions itself as a supplier rather than competitor.
Huang praised Tesla’s technology during a Bloomberg interview. He called Musk’s FSD approach “state-of-the-art” and “world-class.” He said he wouldn’t criticize Tesla’s stack.
“I think Elon’s approach is about as state-of-the-art as anybody knows of autonomous driving and robotics,” Huang said. He encouraged Tesla to continue their current strategy.
Tesla’s Robotaxi Plans
Full Self-Driving remains central to Tesla’s growth strategy. The company launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin last summer. Tesla operates another ride-hailing service in San Francisco with drivers present.
Musk has promised fully autonomous vehicles for over a decade. The company said last August it’s training a new FSD model. The technology still requires driver supervision.
Musk’s 5-6 year timeline suggests he sees limited near-term pressure. The gap between partial autonomy and safer-than-human driving remains years away. Legacy automakers then need additional years for production integration at scale.