Tesla Valuation 'Could Far Exceed Current Levels': Analyst Sees 2 Segments Driving Most Upside (And It's Not Cars)

Tesla Inc.‘s TSLA ambitious ventures beyond electric vehicles are capturing the attention of investors and analysts alike, as the company sets its sights on revolutionizing transportation and automation. A Tesla analyst says the electric vehicle giant could be worth significantly more in the future thanks to its goals in robotaxis, FSD and humanoid robots.

The Tesla Analyst: RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan maintained an Overweight rating on Tesla and raised the price target from $319 to $325.

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The Analyst Takeaways: Tesla’s robotaxi launch in Texas was better than many investors and analysts feared, Narayan said in a new investor note.

“Should Tesla be successful on all of its goals, its valuation could far exceed even current levels,” Narayan said.

Narayan highlighted that Tesla is looking to expand its robotaxi service to more cities, in addition to already expanding its initial robotaxi area in Austin, Texas. Robotaxis remains a key catalyst for Tesla for the future, according to the analyst.

“The goal is to reach half of the US population by year-end, although we expect this is a stretch target.”

Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) is another key catalyst to the Tesla long-term bullish thesis, the analyst said. Narayan highlights that Tesla is seeing a 25% increase in adoption rates of FSD since the launch of FSD V.12 in North America.

Narayan said Tesla is also working on getting FSD approved in Europe and is hoping for an unblock to provide the service in China.

With the future launch of the Optimus Bot, a humanoid robot, Naryan factors in a global valuation for this segment in the latest price target. The previous price target only included a small estimate for the U.S. region.

“Humanoid robots could be significant.”

Narayan highlighted Tesla’s goal of having one million units of Optimus produced per year in less than five years. The analyst’s valuation for humanoid robots assumes the use of Optimus exclusively for manufacturing jobs.

“The reality is should these be used for home/retail purposes, the potential upside could be far greater than any other Tesla business.”

While there are positives for Tesla, the analyst noted that the end of federal tax credits could put pressure on the company’s electric vehicle segment over the next several quarters.

To reach a new price target, Narayan values the car business at a 1.0x EV multiple and then applies various multiples to the other businesses, discounting the value accordingly.

Here is the base value assumption of the Tesla segments to reach a price target of $325:

• Megapacks: $134.2 billion
• Robotaxis: $649.2 billion
• FSD: $185.6 billion
• Humanoid Robots: $36.6 billion
• Cars: $136.5 billion

Narayan said this could be a conservative valuation for Tesla. The analyst also provides an upside valuation for each segment, which sees Tesla reach a price target of $413. Here are the upside valuations of the segments:

• Megapacks: $161.1 billion
• Robotaxis: $876.3 billion
• FSD: $206.8 billion
• Humanoid Robots: $73.2 billion
• Cars: $136.5 billion

Narayan said the Outperform rating is based on growing global EV demand and Tesla’s ability to fund growth in other product areas.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock is down 1.5% to $320.83 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $182.00 to $488.54. Tesla stock is down 15.4% year-to-date in 2025.

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