Tesla (TSLA) is currently trading like a futuristic AI powerhouse, thanks to a recent robotaxi win. But a closer look suggests its core business of building and selling EVs is only worth a fraction of its market cap.
“Tesla is being viewed more and more on autonomy and energy,” Jed Dorsheimer, group head of energy research at William Blair, told Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid.
Dorsheimer, who evaluates Tesla through the lens of energy and infrastructure, pointed to a startling disconnect in the company’s valuation. “There’s really a deemphasis on the auto business, which we value in some of the parts analysis that we’ve published,” he said. “It really only [represents] about $30 to $40 per share in that business.”
Tesla’s stock has been on a tear. Shares have surged over 7% in the past five trading days, hitting new record highs. Meanwhile, the Dow (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) have both slipped as investors digested labor data revealing unemployment had inched up to 4.6% — the highest level since 2021.
Tesla’s rally has been powered by reports of driverless robotaxi testing in Austin, Texas, and growing belief that the company is successfully pivoting from a struggling EV maker into an autonomous driving juggernaut.
For Dorsheimer, the current stock price is almost entirely a bet on things that don’t yet fully exist. In his view, the “transition” is already complete. That is, Tesla is no longer being judged by how many EVs it delivers, but by its progress in robotics and artificial intelligence.
According to Dorsheimer’s analysis, he estimates autonomy now accounts for over 70% of Tesla’s total value. This includes the long-promised Robotaxi platform and Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot project, which some have dubbed “spooky.”
“You’ve really seen energy grow also equal or probably a little bit worth more than just the auto business,” Dorsheimer added. The sum-of-the-parts view suggests that if you stripped away the hopes for self-driving software and the energy storage division, the remaining car company would be valued at a massive discount to its current trading level.
That skepticism lies in execution. While the stock trades on the promise of the future, the company’s near-term revenue and profit still depend largely on the global EV market, which is facing increased competition and regulatory headwinds.
Just this week, California regulators raised concerns about Tesla’s “autopilot” marketing, giving it a 90-day window to clarify or remove that language, a reminder that the path to full autonomy is paved with legal and technical obstacles. For an investor buying in at nearly $480 a share, the margin for error is razor-thin. If the robotaxi timeline slips — as it has many times before — the market may be forced to look at that $30 per share car business with a lot more scrutiny.
Dorsheimer remains bullish on the long-term energy story, noting that Tesla’s energy business is an underappreciated driver of future earnings.
Francisco Velasquez is a Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on LinkedIn, X, and Instagram. Story tips? Email him at francisco.velasquez@yahooinc.com.
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