The stock market shook off one of its worst sell-offs in recent memory to finish the first half of 2025 on a high note. That’s lifted stocks associated with AI, crypto—and gold.
How did we get here? It’s been a ride. Stocks plummeted in early April after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping global tariffs that threatened to scramble global supply chains, spike prices, and slow growth. Trump’s subsequent pause of those tariffs, however, ignited a rally that was further fueled by benign economic data and easing trade tensions. By the end of June, stocks had rebounded to record highs.
Wall Street’s latest rally has looked a bit like last year’s bull market. Artificial intelligence continued to connect many of the market’s winners. But a few new themes have emerged amid the Trump administration’s shake-up of the status quo.
Here, we’ll examine the stock market’s leaders from the first six months of 2025—and examine how the forces underlying their gains could evolve in the next six.
Crypto Stocks
Crypto investors have been handsomely rewarded for the industry’s spending on November’s election.
The industry last year spent more than $100 million in support of pro-crypto candidates. In January, the “most pro-crypto Congress” in history was sworn in and Washington wasted little time giving the industry what it wanted.
Federal regulators have dropped pending litigation against cryptocurrency companies. Trump signed an executive order establishing a Bitcoin reserve. In May, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which would establish a framework for the regulation of cryptocurrencies, was introduced in the House of Representatives. And the Senate in June passed the GENIUS Act, legislation that establishes rules governing stablecoins.
That’s helped grow the cryptocurrency market’s value to more than $3.2 trillion. Washington’s embrace, however, has also boosted related stocks this year. Robinhood (HOOD) stock more than doubled in price in the first half, while Coinbase (COIN) shares rose 41%. Circle Internet Group’s (CRCL) shares more than doubled during the stablecoin issuer’s first day of trading in early June; the stock rose nearly 750% in the two weeks after its debut.
The cryptocurrency legislation working its way through Congress is expected to have little trouble making its way to Trump’s desk for signature in the second half of this year. Trump and his family may continue feeding the industry’s animal spirits with new crypto ventures.
AI Monetizers
Analysts came into the year expecting the group of stocks considered emblematic of the AI trade to change. That has panned out to an extent.
Leadership was expected to shift from AI infrastructure stocks—companies like Nvidia (NVDA), whose chips fill the data centers that cloud computing giants like Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) use to train and run AI models—to software and services providers developing and monetizing AI applications.
Palantir (PLTR) was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 in the first half of the year; its impressive sales and earnings growth have been driven primarily by its AI software. Social media giant Meta Platforms (META) is the Magnificent Seven’s best performer year-to-date thanks in part to its success introducing AI features that have improved performance metrics.
Software stocks are expected to continue to outperform as they improve AI models and develop new applications. They could also benefit from their relative insulation from trade uncertainty, which dented the overall stock market’s returns in the first half.
AI Infrastructure
AI infrastructure, a theme that outperformed for most of 2024, continued to be a winner on Wall Street in the first half of this year.
Tech giants Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta looked through economic uncertainty and stood by plans to cumulatively spend hundreds of billions of dollars on property, buildings, and equipment this year. Much of that spending is earmarked for the technology required to develop and run advanced AI, like Nvidia chips, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) servers, and Amphenol (APH) fiber optic cables. Those hardware suppliers saw their shares rise 18%, 61%, and 42%, respectively, in the first half.
The buildout of power-hungry data centers boosted the stocks of nuclear power providers, whose electricity is in demand from tech companies who say they are looking to shrink their carbon footprints. Shares of Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST) advanced 44% and 41%, respectively.
But bringing new nuclear power online is a long process, and data centers are in the meantime relying on natural gas, boosting the stocks of gas-fired plant operators like NRG Energy (NRG), up 78% year-to-date, and gas turbine makers like GE Vernova (GEV), up 61%.
Experts expect the AI infrastructure trade to be resilient. Tech giants “are planning for long-term data center capacity requirements and won’t alter their investment plans based on tariff regimes that change from week to week,” said Shaon Baqui, tech equities analyst at Janus Henderson Investors.
Gold Miners
The mood globally in the first half of 2025 was tense, to put it mildly. That was good for gold.
In five months, the second Trump administration launched a global trade war targeting friends and foes alike; opened questions about America’s commitment to longtime alliances like NATO; increased America’s involvement in Israel’s conflict with its neighbors; and ratcheted up tensions with China. Investors who sought stability turned to gold, a time-honored safe-haven asset.
Gold prices climbed to record high after record high, peaking at more than $3,450 on June 13, the day Israel launched attacks on Iran’s nuclear program. Shares of gold miner Newmont (NEM) followed prices higher, rising 56% over the first half of the year. Fellow miners Barrick (B) and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) advanced 34% and 52%, respectively.
Central banks, wary of inflation and their reliance on U.S.-controlled reserve assets, have been major buyers of gold in recent years. Demand for gold is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future as governments around the world seek to hedge against elevated geopolitical tensions and an uncertain global economic outlook.
The World Gold Council’s most recent Central Bank Gold Reserves survey found that nearly all central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months. A record 43% of respondents said they plan to add to their gold holdings over the same period.