Trump’s Tariff Policy Redefines Global Trade
Several upcoming events mark key inflection points for the future of U.S. trade policy. On October 1, pharmaceutical and truck tariffs took effect. In addition, new duties of up to 25% on timber, kitchen cabinets, and furniture will come into force on October 14. Furthermore, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is scheduled to meet with President Trump in Washington to discuss economic and security matters.
Meanwhile, the United States and China extended their tariff truce through early November, offering only temporary relief. As the holiday season ramps up, businesses face difficult decisions about sourcing and pricing. On January 1, 2026, even higher duties will hit select imports, raising costs to 30% for furniture and 50% for cabinets and vanities from non-allied nations. Overall, these staggered tariff announcements keep markets in a constant state of adjustment.
Weak Jobs Data Raises Recession Concerns
Labour market data is adding to market stress, which is already heightened by tariffs. With the regular BLS jobs report delayed due to the government shutdown, ADP private payroll data has taken centre stage.
The chart below shows that September recorded a surprise job loss of 32,000 against expectations for a 50,000 gain. Moreover, August’s figure was revised from a gain to a small decline. These figures point to a cooling labour market and rising recession risks.